He’s Mister Heat Miser
US public opinion on the Biden climate plan
COVID-19 isn’t the only crisis on the mind of the new administration. Amidst the flurry of executive orders signed by President Biden during his first weeks of office was a clear message that climate change poses a dire threat, and the time to act is now. Current research shows that the world is on track to warm three degrees Celsius in the next century, a global temperature change that would produce increased wildfires, hurricanes, and other environmental disasters. In the U.S., greenhouse gas emissions — carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels that warms the atmosphere — from power generation alone account for 31% of total emissions, making it the largest contributor. In an effort to lower emissions, Biden’s $2 trillion “Clean Energy Revolution” climate plan sets goals of a carbon-free power (electricity generation) sector by 2035 and zero carbon emissions for the entire economy by 2050.
Sound familiar? That’s because the plan shares many of the same goals as the Green New Deal first introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey in early 2019, though at a lower cost and on a less ambitious timeframe. For comparison, the GND has been estimated to cost anywhere from $10 trillion to $93 trillion to implement and aspires to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and 100% clean renewable energy by 2030. At the first presidential debate with former President Trump last October, Biden stated that he didn’t support the GND, but the climate page of his website says it is a “crucial framework” with basic truths that are at the core of his plan: being ambitious to meet the “epic” challenge of fighting climate change. For more insight, we asked Americans their take on Biden’s plan, how it relates to the GND, and if either has their support. Here are the three biggest takeaways:
With a Grain of Salt
Many of us have probably already given up on a New Year’s Resolution. After all, setting goals is easy. Reaching them is the hard part. A majority of Americans feel the same way about Biden’s climate plan, with roughly half of Fat Finger respondents approving of the plan’s goals of carbon-free power by 2035 and zero carbon emissions by 2050. On the point of whether the U.S. will actually reach them though, well, most Americans were skeptical — 70% doubted the 2035 goal and 54% the 2050. Approval of the plan’s goals was split on partisan lines, with a majority of Democrats and Independents in support compared to just 10% of Republicans. When asked for their predictions of its success, though, a majority of Republicans and Independents and even a plurality of Democrats figured America would fall short on both goals.
Green New Deal Lite
The similarities between Biden’s plan and the Green New Deal have led some pundits to refer to it as a “mini-GND” of sorts. A plurality (24%) of Americans agree and say the Biden plan falls “a bit short” of what the GND wanted, followed by 16% who say the plans want the same things and 15% who say it falls “far short.” Another 15% — including a plurality of Republicans (20%) — say they could use more info and don’t know enough about either plan to give a definitive answer comparing the two. Curiously, Republicans were the most critical of how Biden’s plan stacked against the GND, Democrats led the way in saying it falls “a bit short,” and Independents were the most convinced the two plans are essentially the same.
The Approval Index
Democrats may hold a razor thin edge in the Senate, but passing Biden’s plan would be a Herculean effort that will likely require GOP and industry support. Biden may want to focus on convincing the public first, though. A slim plurality (45%/41%) disapprove of his plan, though that’s slightly better than the half of Americans who are anti-GND. Both are extremely partisan proposals that are approved by 70% of Democrats and have the disapproval of nearly 90% of Republicans. That’s what makes how the Independents voted so fascinating. Though a majority (53%/35%) said they were against the GND, they were much more amenable to Biden’s scaled back plan at an even 40%/40% split. Now that’s partisan-neutral.
Related Polls:
In 2016, a majority (56%) of Americans said that they were at least somewhat sure that climate change is man-made and real compared to 32% who said they were at least somewhat certain it is not.
Also that year, we asked Americans what is their preferred method of dealing with climate change. About 25% said it was not a meaningful problem and nothing should be done while another 25% said clean power should be subsidized. Only about 5% called for emission reduction initiatives like a carbon tax or cap and trade system for CO2 emissions.
Last spring as election season heated up, we asked Americans to choose which of 10 topics were most important to them when considering whom to vote for president. Immigration was #1 with half of all respondents. Climate change came in fifth with 28%, ahead of “the party of the candidate” and just behind “Supreme Court vacancies.”
by Landry Harlan
